Oman has long been regarded as a neutral party in the Middle East and has been trying to get the Houthi rebels in Saudi Arabia and Yemen into the negotiating table in the past few weeks.
The goal is ambitious-to end the war in Yemen, or at least Riyadh to participate in it, which began in March 2015 to support the Yemeni government.
If you want to report Believe, The mediator may be close to success, and Saudi Arabia and the Houthis allied with Iran are “finalizing the terms of the peace agreement.” However, despite the attempts of the Omanis, this may be just wishful thinking.
Peter Salisbury, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera: “The good news is that there is obviously more attention to direct negotiations with the leadership of Sanahout.”
“The bad news is that this has not yet bridged the gap between the Houthi armed forces and Saudi Arabia’s position. Until then, we will not see much movement.”
Since Saudi Arabia came to power, the positions of the two sides have hardly changed Propose a national ceasefire Yemen was rejected by the Houthis in March.
Houthis said the elements of the proposal, such as the reopening of Sana’a Airport and unhindered Enter Hodeida PortMost of the food in Yemen is imported and should be unconditional.
“After that, we will discuss a comprehensive ceasefire, which should be a real cessation of hostilities, not a fragile truce. This will include the withdrawal of foreign forces from Yemen to facilitate political negotiations,” Houthi spokesman Mohamed Abdul Salam told Reuters news agency on June 21.
The Saudis find it difficult to accept these terms. Although a costly war in six years has yielded little results, Riyadh is unlikely to be willing to abandon Yemen because its own security is almost insecure, and its biggest regional opponent is Iran, its ally. The southern border is deeply rooted.
Salisbury said: “So far, Saudi Arabia has always hoped to make ironclad guarantees of border security and Iran’s influence in Yemen, and hope that an ally will play an influential role in future politics.”
“This position may have eased, but it will be a bitter pill to swallow only to end the war with a border agreement and not anything else.”
As far as the Houthis are concerned, they believe that the balance of power has changed and that they have the upper hand in the military.
Rebel groups continue to control most of Yemen’s densely populated northern and central highlands, and they believe they can determine the terms and timing of any peace agreement.
The Houthi armed forces are at the forefront of the military on the ground in Yemen, and Continue to try to capture Malibu, The last important government stronghold in the north of the country.
Their military capabilities are also strengthening, and the range of missile and drone attacks on Saudi territory has continued to expand, and they have attacked large population centers in Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh and Jeddah.
International efforts to end the fighting in Yemen and reduce the humanitarian suffering of millions of people in what the United Nations has long termed “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis” have been stepped up this year.
The new vitality was rejuvenated after Biden’s new administration came to power in January. The government immediately stated that the U.S. policy in Yemen will be different from that of the Trump administration, at least slightly different.
“The war in Yemen must end,” President Joe Biden said in his first major foreign policy speech in February, while also announcing that the United States would stop supporting Yemen’s offensive operations in support of the Saudi Arabia-led coalition.
The United States also quickly removed Houthi from the State Department’s list of foreign terrorist organizations and appointed a special envoy to Yemen.
While firmly emphasizing that the United States continues to support the governments of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, special envoy Tim Lenderking also recently called the Houthi armed “legitimate actors.”
“My experience from the Houthis is that they talked about their commitment to peace in Yemen, and I think there must be an element in the leadership that supports this,” Lenderking said last week.
But the huge differences between the Houthi armed forces and their opponents, especially the Yemeni government and other forces opposed to them, show little sign of disappearing.
Even if the Saudis do withdraw, if the loose anti-Houthi coalition formed by the Saudis collapses, the war may continue on the ground in some form and may further escalate.
The anti-Houthis believes that the insurgent organization is not credible and uses past agreements as evidence.
“This experiment We have seen before our eyes It’s Hodeidah,” said Baraa Shiban, a former member of the Yemen National Dialogue Conference, who referred to an agreement that ended the coalition’s December 2018 efforts to promote the Red Sea port city mainly controlled by the Houthi.
“For Yemenis, this is a bad model,” Hiban told Al Jazeera. “You have a 6-kilometer-long road. Three years of negotiations have been conducted to remove landmines and roadblocks, but they have not been able to do it. If such a small scale cannot be achieved, how can it be done on a larger scale across the country?
“This is neither realistic nor sustainable,” Shi Ban added. “Maybe something will be signed, but everyone will pull the trigger with their fingers and wait for it to explode again.”