If Mexican President Andres Manuel López Obrador is punished for his defeat in the midterm elections this month, he hasn’t shown it.
The morning after the June 6 vote, the government issued a law extending the term of Arturo Zaldívar, the president of the Supreme Court, who is close to the president. Critics worry that this might Provide a template for López Obrador to extend his term of office beyond 2024.
Within a few days, the president vowed to carry out constitutional reforms in the areas of energy, elections, and security, despite Lose two-thirds majority This change in Congress is needed. He accused the “abnormal, slanderous, and immoral” media of poisoning voters against him and attacking the middle class as selfish social climbers.
Despite the fierce rhetoric, for López Obrador, this looks more like business as usual, rather than losing about one-fifth of the seats in Congress and more than half of Mexico City in his Morena party The constituency shifted to a more radical agenda.
“Obviously, Amlo will continue to be Amlo. This is something that companies and society must learn to accept-we will not change him,” said Antonio del Valle, head of the Mexican Business Council, which represents the country’s largest company. , Use the nickname of the president.
“But three years later, we can now understand that, just as he will not change politically, he will not change his economic policy.”.. This makes me feel relieved. “
Top business leaders have learned to ignore the inflammatory message of the senior populist and praised how he, like other leftists in Latin America, has withstood the pressure of huge borrowings.
A CEO, who asked not to be named, said that the president’s “barking is worse than biting.”
Although his rhetoric is still confrontational, many observers expect that the plan he made long ago will not deviate from the plan he made to achieve the “transition” he bragged about Mexico: a social plan to address serious income inequality, poverty The infrastructure projects in the southeast are self-sufficient based on fossil fuels to create jobs and energy.
After serving as the mayor of Mexico City in 2000-05, López Obrador showed a pragmatic attitude, “I thought he would be more gentle, but he did not,” the organization’s totem figure Porfirio Mu Said Porfirio Muñoz Ledo. The Mexican left is one of the few critics of the president in the ruling Morena party.
López Obrador wants to extend Zaldívar’s term to ensure that the judiciary may be more compliant. His attacks on the respected electoral agency INE and independent regulators sounded It’s a wake-up call.
“I hope he will not strengthen the presidency against the institution,” Muñozledo said. “The President of Mexico is already very powerful.”
Claudia Sheinbaum, the proud protégé of López Obrador and the mayor of Mexico City, mocked what she said of the opposition’s efforts to portray the election as a watershed in Mexican democracy, “thinking that This will be our last vote because we are moving towards dictatorship.”
BlueBay Asset Management partner Graham Stock (Graham Stock) believes that López Obrador has “limited opportunities” for radicalization without an absolute majority in Congress and refuses to Compare it with Hugo Chávez, the late dictator leader of Venezuela.
“He is a fiscal conservative, so he will not spend money for economic growth,” he said. “The chaotic and devastating narrative that his opponents have been trying to say will happen-I don’t believe… he is not the next Chavez, he is unique.”
After winning an overwhelming victory in 2018, López Obrador maintained the loyalty of his supporters through charity, higher pensions, and substantially increased minimum wages. His stubborn refusal to take on more debt means the absence of a Covid-19 stimulus plan, which triggered a recession that was worse than many of his Latin American counterparts last year.
Jorge Castañeda, the former foreign minister of the conservative PAN Party, said he believed that López Obrador had wasted using its “great legitimacy” to implement far-reaching effects Opportunities for reforms.
“What you have to do is what he didn’t do, although what he could have done is serious tax reform,” he said. López Obrador promised to plug loopholes instead of raising taxes.
Gerardo Esquivel, deputy governor of the Bank of Mexico, said: “This seems to be a short-termist, but it is a pragmatic logic.” “All past fiscal reform attempts have ended in political failure… In his view, let people pay. The price they have to pay and get a salary where they deserve it is more transformative.”
Mexico’s economy now Rebounding With the help of President Joe Biden’s US$1.9 trillion stimulus plan in the United States, it has contracted by 8.5% in 2020 and is expected to achieve growth of 6% or more this year.
However, as López Obrador canceled partially completed airport and brewery projects, the atmosphere of uncertainty lingered, putting pressure on the investment needed for Mexico to get rid of the traditionally weak growth rate.
López Obrador’s relentless attacks on political enemies, including the wealthy, the media, and business people, have also exacerbated concerns about the risk of further splitting an already severely divided and violent society.
“The most important thing is to stop the polarization of this country: rich and poor, north and south,” said the chief executive of a Mexican bank. “We all need to row in the same direction before the boat can move forward.”