Has anyone else managed to catch ITV’s Golden Balls? It’s a game-show, on weekdays at 5pm and presented by Jasper Carrott.
I won’t bore you with the full details of the game, as I haven’t really figured them out myself. What’s interesting about the show is the final round: The two surviving contestants are given the chance to win either all, half or none of the money they’ve managed to accumulate. Both have two options to (secretly) choose from – Steal or Split. If both choose to split they get half the money each, if both choose to steal they don’t get anything, and if one chooses to steal while the other chooses to split then the stealer gets all the money and the splitter gets nothing.
In what circumstances would you ever choose to split? If your opponent has chosen to steal then your best bet is to choose steal as well – as, although you don’t win anything, you at least deny them the money as well. If your opponent has chosen to split then your best bet is choose steal – as that way you get all the money.
Choosing split never makes sense: you’re either going to lose all the money to your opponent or needlessly give away half.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Golden Balls - why stealing is always the right choice
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3 comments:
To split would be crazy.
You are quite right. The game is known in game theory as 'the prisoners' dilemma'. The only stable equilibrium is for both to steal because, no matter what the other person is doing, the optimal thing to do is always to steal. It ‘strictly dominates’ all other options. Of course, all this assumes you want to get the money and don’t feel guilty afterwards. I pretty sure I would feel terrible if I stole.
What bores me is the two saying "Yes - we've got this far together - let's split...". As first glance it appears stealing is the only stable strategy (/equilibrium) as it does not allow your competitor an advantage.
However the truly dominant player is Endemol as they get the revenues and generally minimize their losses, at the statistical level. The players incur real costs (time/travel) and opportunity costs from not using their life more meaningfully.
The way to beat them is to say "I'm going to steal", and then use the split option. This way the other person does not get so unhappy. And best of all the contestant(s) get the money. The look of total bemusement on Carrot's baffled face will partially help redress your own costs.
'Golden Balls' really demonstrates how selfish British people have become. Remember the National Health Service, National Rail, Post Office? Can't imagine any social altruism being progressed in this generation.
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