A Lament for Iraq?

The Iraqi Constitution has been passed, with a 78% approval rate (out of the 63% of those who voted). To be honest, my feelings are mixed over this. On the one hand I agree with Iraqis like Salam Pax that anything that helps Iraq become more stable is to be welcomed. In his blog ‘Shut Up You Fat Whiner’ Pax states that he’s being an “optimistic idiot”, supporting the Constitution because it’s a possible step away from the violence in the country at the moment. First you worry about getting a stable government established, then you begin to worry about making it democratic.

How effective this new constitution will be is open to question though. Firstly, a number of Sunni groups agreed to back it only on the condition that certain points could be renegotiated at a later date. These were points over which no agreement could be reached during the initial negotiations, and little has changed since then.

Secondly, a number of Sunni provinces overwhelmingly rejected the constitution. Those who voted ‘No’ are unlikely to suddenly throw their support behind it now, which means that the insurgency is unlikely to be affected by all this. Opposition to the new constitution could even end up fuelling it as some Sunnis could see their views being ignored by the political process.

The atmosphere under which the vote was cast also indicates problems ahead. The south of the country is known to be dominated by Shia Militias who were pushing for a ‘Yes’ vote. It’s from these areas that the allegations of fraud are rife, allegations that will no doubt undermine the legitimacy of the process to those who voted against it.

Also of concern is the constitution itself, which could serve to undermine human rights by insisting on Islam as source of law. Iraq has always been one of the few countries to resist Sharia law in the Middle East, it’s adoption will be a huge step backwards.

While a stable but undemocratic Iraq is arguably preferable to civil war, it’s clear that this new constitution is only a slight step forward. Rather than representing the establishment of a democratic Iraq it will likely have three consequences. The Sunni will feel ignored by the political system. The Shia groups will push for a theocracy allied with Iran, and the Kurds will continue their push for an independent homeland. None of these developments bode well for the region as a whole, with the image of Iraq as a beacon of democracy in the Middle East fading fast.

But that no longer seems to be the goal. With US casualties hitting 2,000, the aim of establishing democracy has been replaced with establishing enough stability for coalition troops to pull-out and leave Iraq to deal with it’s own problems. For those who believe in democracy this is a severe blow. To those who view this purely in terms of pro-war or anti-war, it’s a win for neither side.